Phillies Dodgers

Source: ESPN

The Phillies-Dodgers series marks the first postseason meeting between these teams since 1983, which was their third National League Championship Series tilt in eight years. While the Phillies boast the better regular-season record and the tougher regular-season schedule, the matchup isn't as lopsided as that might indicate.

When the Phillies are up

• The Dodgers shut down the league's best offense in the NL Division Series, but they are about to face what might be the second-best, one unlikely to put up the same type of poor at-bats we saw from the Cubs. (The Cubs themselves weren't likely to throw a stinkbomb like that, but they did.) Look for solid at-bats and plenty of deep fly balls.

Utley

• For a slugging team, the Phillies can run -- really run. Their running game is about more than speed and relies on efficiency on the bases. But the Dodgers' starters do a good job of holding runners, making for an interesting subplot.

• The hitter to watch is Chase Utley, who had a soft second half, affected by a sore hip. Utley and Ryan Howard struggled in the NLDS, but the hitters around them picked up the slack. It's hard to imagine the Phillies' being able to skate by a team better than the Brewers with neither hitter contributing, and Utley, one of the 10 best hitters in baseball when fully healthy, is more likely to step up.

When the Dodgers are up

• The Dodgers were not a particularly patient team during the regular season, but they were against the Cubs during the NLDS. Waiting out Cole Hamels isn't always a good strategy, but the Phillies' other three starters all can get into trouble when they're behind in the count and depend to some degree on hitters' getting themselves out.

Loney

• Give Joe Torre credit: He picked the best-hitting lineup he could from the assets available to him and ran it out there three times, all against right-handed pitchers. However, two of the Dodgers' best hitters, James Loney and Andre Ethier, bat from the left side and struggle against left-handed pitchers. The Dodgers will face a lefty in at least three NLCS games and possibly four, although Hamels is tougher on righties (due to arguably the best left-handed changeup in baseball) and Jamie Moyer has never had much of a righty-lefty split. Whether Torre platoons either Loney or Ethier, and with whom, will be one of the biggest questions facing L.A. • Will Manny Ramirez get anything to hit? He and Ethier drew four walks apiece in the NLDS, and he always has had outstanding plate discipline. In a tight spot, will the Phils pitch to Manny, especially if they have to face a lefty, Ethier, behind him?

Keys for the Phillies

• Hit. The Phillies won the NLDS with a couple of big innings, built around either the long ball or a Mike Cameron misplay. You would expect one of the NL's best offenses to do better than that against Milwaukee, one of the weakest pitching staffs, especially without Ben Sheets. The next test, against the Dodgers' staff, will be much tougher. If the Phillies' hitters don't perform better, they can't win.

Burrell

• Work the platoons. Pat Burrell and Jayson Werth have significant platoon splits, crushing lefties but faring worse against righties; the Phillies need to get Matt Stairs into the lineup for at least a few games, since the Dodgers will start right-handers in at least six of the seven matchups. You can count on Charlie Manuel's using Greg Dobbs instead of Pedro Feliz with a righty on the mound, but using Stairs instead of one of the two right-handed hitting outfielders gives the Phillies another advantage, especially since Werth and Burrell struggle against hard throwers like Chad Billingsley. • Get something more from Moyer. The ageless wonder was all over the place in his one start in the NLDS, and the Dodgers' lineup as currently constituted is better than the Brewers' -- less patient, but more contact-oriented and with more power.

Lowe

Keys for the Dodgers

• Maximize the starting pitching advantage. The Dodgers could go with Derek Lowe on short rest in Game 4 -- risky, as he was bombed in his one short-rest start this season -- but then would have Billingsley, Hiroki Kuroda and Lowe on full rest in Games 5 through 7, which is ideal. Their best alternative for Game 4 is lefty Clayton Kershaw, giving them an advantage against Howard and Utley but allowing the Phillies to get more out of lefty-killers like Werth and Shane Victorino. Still, it would be better to roll the dice on Kershaw's big stuff than on the ability of control artist Greg Maddux to shut down a disciplined lineup.

• Get Kuo. Hong-Chih Kuo missed the NLDS with numbness in his arm and soreness in his triceps. While the Dodgers did just fine without him, he'd be an incredible weapon in the late innings against Utley or Howard. Pinch-hitting for a lefty like Dobbs or Stairs is only a marginal improvement, because Kuo is effective against right-handed hitters, too. If the Phillies are more patient than the Cubs were and get into the Dodgers' bullpen, the Kuo/no-Kuo variable will be a major one.

• Stay patient. The Dodgers out-walked the Cubs 14-6, turning a 10-point batting average advantage into a 73-point on-base percentage advantage. Of course, this also means the Dodgers' pitchers need to keep throwing strikes, but their front three all have been strike-throwers since Billingsley started his run of success in early May.

Prediction

The Phillies had the better season and might be the better team, but this is a bad matchup for them unless their starters behind Hamels step it up -- or the Dodgers' bats are as cold in this series as they were hot against Chicago. A Maddux start in Game 4 might make this pick too aggressive, but assuming it's either Lowe on short rest or Kershaw on a short leash, I'll go with the Dodgers in five.